Numbers Can Lie

I was trained as an economist, and now I work on big data analysis. By looking at the numbers, I analyze the trends and probabilities, and make predictions. You can imagine how frustrated I am when I have to deal with a situation that can not be explained by numbers. The causation, or the correlation that I have strong belief in simply does not work in my case,  or in other words, I'm an outlier.

I went to see my OB again yesterday, which was my first visit to her after the surgery. We reviewed what happened and tried to figure out the reason, but we were not able to. I seem to be a healthy mom as I don't drink, smoke, or use drugs, and my family never suffer from genetic disease. I strictly followed the FDA's suggestions on healthy diet during pregnancy, and took prenatal vitamins every day. My pregnancy was under strict and regular monitoring as well: I had my blood pressure measured and my urine tested every month, and had my ultrasound tests and blood tests in each trimester. All the results were perfect. Even when I bled and had contractions, physicians still decided to discharge me from hospital when my situation was stable given my previous wonderful records. However the worst situation still happened, which is "very rare" according to my OB. For her, I'm probably an outlier whose numbers fail to predict the risks in the last few months of pregnancy, however for me, it was the most painful experience in my life, which could have cost my life.

There are so many things that we do not understand that usually we can only talk about "probabilities" when we are making predictions. Given the available information, we calculate a probability for a certain outcome. However no matter how confident we are, it's always difficult to be 100% sure in the outcome. We do not usually get worried when the probability is high, like somewhere between 90% to 99%. But what if you unfortunately are the 10 - 1%? You do not make any difference to data analysts: numbers do not change, and their analysis will largely stay the same. But your life can be very different. Individuals are always powerless in statistics.

I thought of many possibilities in that night. What if I decided to go to the hospital earlier? What if my blood transfusion was given in a different way? What if physicians failed to insert the tube into my lungs to help me breathe? And what if OBs decided to do a C-section instead? I felt lucky that I survived from the emergency and have recovered quickly. And I know no matter how well I monitor my life, it's hard to be risk free. Numbers can lie, and we have to be strong.