Study Chinese Politics

I made fun of The Economist for its gossiping methodology in Chinese studies in one of my previous blogs (The Gossips in the Economist). And it's absolutely not alone. Since the new politburo standing committee members met the press conference last night, all sorts of guesses, predictions and gossips about Chinese leadership in the next decade can be found on major newspapers, bold in headlines. Leaving all the bureaucratic jargon aside in newspapers such as People's Daily, the "studies" on Chinese politics have a wide variety of tools, ranging from committee members' resume to their tie colors. Here I will do what The Economist and its peers do: list a few citations/briefs from internet.

Most comments focused on Xi's speech, which followed his appearance as the top leader of the CCP. Weibo posts praised him as the first CCP leader who speaks mandarin. Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping are both famous for their strong accents when speaking Mandarin, which also creates a lot of difficulties for their actors in TV and movies. Jiang and Hu did a better job, but their tones still sound weird. In Comparison, Xi Jinping speaks much better Mandarin. People joked about the last Chinese leader who spoke such good Mandarin was back to Xuantong, the last Qing Emperor. Eulogy for Xi's good mandarin also has another implication: compared to his predecessors who filled their accession speeches (as well as most other speeches) with political jargon and empty talks, Xi seems to be better at talking in a language that ordinary people can understand. We don't know yet whether Xi can make government documents easier to read or the policy better to understand (probably not), but hopefully his speech will be less hypnotic.

The media also paid close attention to Xi's accession as the president of the central military committee. In China the CCP controls the army, and therefore the default is that the CCP president should also be the CMC president. However, ten years ago, Jiang refused to abdicate from the CMC president even though he was supposed to do so after resigning from the standing committee, and it took Hu another two years to get full control of the military power. This time, Hu seems to be less addictive to power than his predecessor, and turned over all his positions to Xi.

Not many people are surprised at the shrinking size of the standing committee as the previous nine-member one was abnormal itself. After Bo's removal from the Party, people no longer doubt that extreme leftists are removed from leading body as well. Pivotal members in the gamble is Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao, both of whom are viewed as relatively liberal and young CCP leaders. They gave their way to some mid-60s, but are expected to join the standing committee in the next term, when five out of the current seven members are to retire.

Other "studies", such as why Wang Qishan's tie color differed from other committee members; how summer birth months affect people's political future (it turned out four members were born in June/July); and what their wives and children are doing, etc, are trying to find some clues in the new Chinese leading group. This is how people study China, even so-called experts are not likely to have better ideas about understanding real political scenes. Let's continue having fun with Xi's standard Mandarin and Wang's blue tie. Maybe mysticism will be the best way to study Chinese politics.